Friday: 3 February 2006
At NOAA I found the following information.
First, we have a La Nina! Expected to be 3-6 months duration, it results in winter temperatures colder than average in the western US, and drier than average in the southeast US. If it lasts into the hurricane season it encourages the formation of hurricanes.
Second, also at NOAA, we have these absolutely precious temperature anomaly plots by the month. (A temperature anomaly plot just takes the difference between the monthly average for 2006, as here, and the average for a set of years (in this case 1970-2006), and color codes it as indicated.)
Since January is on everyone’s minds, here it is:
As everyone has noticed, and you were certainly right if you live in the northern half of the US, January has been very warm, as much as 12-16 degrees warmer than average.
Here’s the plots for August 2005, the autumn, and December.
August was several degrees warmer for those of us in the Eastern and Western US.
You might remember that I posted back in September about how warm it was. How warm was it? 2-4 degF warmer than normal in the eastern US but cooler in the northwest.
October was fairly normal most places; at most 2 degF above normal here in the southeast:
November was warmer than usual, especially in the mid-US.
And finally, December. It was 2-4 degF colder than usual in the Southeast, but the January warming trend was beginning to become apparent in the north-central US.
Rurality - email - url
I remember last winter thinking that it was mild, but this one has it all beat to heck...
Last winter I worried about the ducks and the dog being too cold on certain nights... but this year I don’t think it’s gotten below 20F at all... and most of the coolest nights have still been just below freezing.
Last year the bugs were worse than the year before so I hate to even think about this coming summer! The gnats especially - they drive me nuts.
Friday: 3 February 2006 @ 08:08:38
thingfish23 - email - url
We’ve been super-dry here.
I’ve had to dropper-feed my beautiful larvae that are better than Wayne’s so they don’t die of thirst.
Seriously, though. It’s silly how dry things are here. And, as everyone has said, it has been very warm, too. It’s comfy and all, but I don’t like it. We already “don’t have seasons” down here, and this year it’s even worse.
In the back of my mind, I also wonder if we’re going to have another bumper crop of hurricanes in aught-six. I don’t know why I would think there is a connection between that thought and the current discussion, but I am sure that there is a tenuous link somewhere.
Friday: 3 February 2006 @ 08:25:52
Wayne - email - url
It’s a pity about your larvae, TF. Presumably they’ll all dry up and blow away, or maybe migrate to Athens!
However mistaken you might be about your larvae though, TF, you’re right about hurricanes - a La Nina event encourages the formation of hurricanes. So if this one lasts into the summer, well.....
I guess we’ll have to wait a few months to see what’s happens for the rest of the winter, Karen, but it’s already weird.
Friday: 3 February 2006 @ 08:31:17
Rexroths Daughter - email - url
That January map is so interesting, Wayne. We’re actually experiencing fairly average seasonal temps and rainfall here in the northwest. But, I keep thinking the rest of the country is going to have a freaky late winter in February. It would just be so weird for there not be a winter at all this year.
Friday: 3 February 2006 @ 11:17:09
Don
Oh Wayne... Yoohoo... remember me... it’s Winter, and I’m all set to come right down over your head next week. The jet stream will be SOUTH of you next week, and your temp. is predicted to drop by 20 degrees next week! Hopefully it will be short-lived... our temp here in Iowa is down 20 degrees from yesterday, and the real cold air isn’t here yet.
Don
Friday: 3 February 2006 @ 11:48:35
Wayne - email - url
Winter Don - hey! That was my prediction - that we’d see February as a winter month!
In fact, our long range forecast looks to be a good chance of snow on Monday and Thursday nights. I can’t wait!
Friday: 3 February 2006 @ 11:52:45
Wayne - email - url
RD, I’m cogitating on a sadly intuitive thought. What if. What if the expanse of Arctic Ocean that we now know has thawed far more than expected has tweaked the air temperatures so that even if Arctic blasts are pouring down as we’d expect, they’re no longer cold, even if for only part of the winter that it takes for the surface to freeze? That bothers me a lot; it sounds like the tipping point.
Friday: 3 February 2006 @ 11:55:15
